Victoria blamed a dragged spreadsheet cell. Its own statement says it knew in July.

What CBC reported

On 1 September Karin Larsen's piece, "B.C. energy ministry says 4 calculation mistakes led to $1.5B budget error," led with the ministry's briefing: the biggest mistake applied a U.S.-to-Canadian conversion to figures already in Canadian dollars. "A formula was incorrectly dragged across cells," a ministry representative said. A spokesperson called it "a human-caused and regrettable error made by a mistake on a spreadsheet." The piece noted that Treaty 8 experts flagged the problem to Premier David Eby, Energy Minister Adrian Dix and then-finance minister Brenda Bailey "earlier this summer," that it "wasn't until Business in Vancouver broke the story last week that the government acknowledged the problem," and that an updated fiscal outlook is expected later this month.

The day before, the same reporter's "B.C.'s $1.5B budget error raises questions about gas royalties, transparency" carried Olewiler's doubts about the currency explanation ("I don't know where the exchange rate comes in"), quoted the Treaty 8 letter's claim that the forecasts inflated the plant-inlet price "by 76 per cent to more than 100 per cent," and quoted Conservative finance critic Gavin Dew asking "did the premier or the energy minister lie about it? What did they know and when did they know it?" It noted CBC had requested interviews with Eby and Dix.

• B.C. energy ministry says 4 calculation mistakes led to $1.5B budget error, 1 Sep 2026
• B.C.'s $1.5B budget error raises questions about gas royalties, transparency, 31 Aug 2026

What was already public

1. 1.
   The premier's office's own written statement says the Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions became aware of a possible error in the budget's natural-gas revenue forecast in July 2026, then ran an internal review. That is the government's date, not a critic's.

   Premier's office statement, quoted by Energetic City, 31 Aug 2026
2. 2.
   On 14 July the chiefs of four Treaty 8 First Nations handed Premier Eby a letter identifying the error, warning that the new royalty framework would capture 11 to 14 per cent of producer profits against a 50 per cent target, and calling it "your last chance to avoid a basic — and embarrassing — mistake."

   BIV, 27 Aug 2026; Canadian Press, 1 Sep 2026
3. 3.
   On 25 August, asked by reporters, Premier Eby said he was "not familiar with any error in the budget related to oil and gas revenues." The government acknowledged the error by email on 27 August, hours after BIV published.

   BIV, 26 and 27 Aug 2026
4. 4.
   On 29 June in Fort St. John, Energy Minister Dix told Treaty 8 First Nations the new framework would bring in $2.4 billion more over five years than the previous plan, and that those gains were based on Budget 2026 numbers, according to a recording of the meeting obtained by BIV. On 1 September a ministry official could not say how much of that $2.4 billion is now at risk.

   BIV, 27 Aug and 1 Sep 2026
5. 5.
   Independent experts dispute the currency explanation. An oil-and-gas expert advising Treaty 8 told BIV most of the price forecasts in Budget 2026 are already in Canadian dollars and a conversion error would not likely exceed $30 million; Olewiler said the government's account was "incomplete and confusing." The ministry says the four errors touched 11 of the 22 third-party price forecasts it relies on.

   BIV, 27 Aug and 1 Sep 2026
6. 6.
   On 31 August the B.C. Greens asked the Auditor General to investigate the errors and their consequences for the royalty system, and called for the new framework to be paused. The province says it has no plans to pause the 1 January 2027 rollout and will restate the numbers in the First Quarterly Report on 14 September.

   BIV, 1 Sep 2026

What the independents said

Business in Vancouver's Stefan Labbé broke the story on 26 August with Olewiler's analysis that the province had failed to subtract transportation and processing costs from its price forecasts, an error she put at roughly $500 million a year. The government's admission came that afternoon, at $292 million a year, with a different explanation. BIV followed on 27 August with the 14 July letter and the 29 June recording, and on 1 September with the briefing's four errors and the $1.46-billion total.

Western Standard's Alex Zoltan called the government's account "fishy" on 28 August. Gavin Dew told BIV the affair was a "scandal of sufficient magnitude to bring down the government," and told CBC his third and most serious question was whether the premier or the energy minister lied. Independent commentary has generally treated the spreadsheet as the government's preferred ending and the July timeline as the story.

• Business in Vancouver — Budget error could cost B.C. billions in gas royalties (26 Aug)
• Business in Vancouver — B.C. government admits to $1.5-billion gas royalty error (27 Aug)
• Western Standard — The Eby government's fishy explanation for a $1.5-billion gas royalty hole (28 Aug)